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Mexico

Summary

While searching for grave sites and coordinates, we have noticed that many graves and disposal practices may be difficult to find on satellite imagery. Based on images posted by groups that search for clandestine graves, such as Madres Buscadoras de Sonora and Reporte Fosas Clandestinas Reynosa Tamaulipas, hand dug graves appear to be shallow, haphazardly dug, and often underneath bushes or trees or in ravines, making them difficult to identify with satellite imagery. Moreover, mass graves, such as the ones found in El Salto and in Guadalajara (see below), are sometimes made up of cremated remains or remains concealed in bags, both of which make identification through satellite imagery difficult if not impossible. The Cartels appear to be significantly less predictable in the ways in which they dispose of bodies than perhaps expected in conflict zones, as sometimes there are not any proper or identifiable graves at all. For example, many articles hint to grave sites being located accidentally when other unrelated investigations were being conducted, suggesting that these sites can be difficult to detect.[1] CentroGeo confirms this, noting that Cartels intentionally pick locations that are hard to find. “In most states, clandestine graves were more likely when obstacles blocked the view of the grave site.”[2] In this regard, “boots on the ground” tactics for grave identification seem to be the most promising, although many groups like the Madres Buscadoras do rely on drones to identify potential anomalies in the land. However, one group uses drones equipped with thermo-sensitive cameras, which will detect anomalies in the soil, such as increased levels of nitrogen and humidity.[3] This indicates that drone footage is not on its own sufficient in grave identification. Moreover, though it seems likely that satellite imagery alone is insufficient in detecting graves, groups such as CentroGeo are finding new ways to use the technology in order to predict the location of clandestine graves.​

Cartel Violence

Generally speaking, there appears to be two main types of disposal when it comes to Mexican Cartels killing people. The first typically results in the bodies being publicly left at the site of the murder or displayed in a public area to send a message, demonstrating a lack of fear of legal repercussions.[4] The second type of disposal is of more interest to Khthon, as this entails efforts by the Cartels to hide the bodies of their victims. This is a much larger issue than the public killings and displays of murdered individuals, as reflected by the number of people currently missing in Mexico (estimated to be around 100,000).[5] However, this category is not a monolith, as there is considerable nuance within the context of different killings and disposal attempts. Most of these contexts include issues relating to migration and drug trafficking.

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Issues with Grave Sites

There are unfortunately a rising number of clandestine graves in Mexico, with thousands of people going missing and the Cartels attempting to hide their bodies. However, these graves are not easy to find and are generally difficult to pinpoint using satellite imagery. We will demonstrate this claim with several examples taken from different cases. First, in June 2024, twenty-nine clandestine graves were discovered on a private property in the community of Tecuanillo, Tecoman, Colima.[6] We could not find the exact location of the grave site, however relevant articles provided images of the site. It appears to be located under dense foliage and trees, making it difficult to see with satellite imagery. The article reported that the site was found near the beach in Tecuanillo and, based on satellite imagery available on Google Earth, the land near the ocean is populated by dense brush and palm tree farms of some sort, with the former making it
difficult to see the land beneath.

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This is not an isolated case. The images posted on Facebook and X pages run by groups of civilians who search for missing people and graves, such as the Madres Buscadoras de Sonora and Reporte Fosas Clandestinas Reynosa Tamualipas, also highlight that many graves are located beneath bushes or trees, as well as in ravines.[7] This is evident in the discovery of another mass grave where forty-five bags of human remains were found in a ravine off of Sendero de los Fresnos Street in Guadalajara.[8] The location of the ravine is visible on satellite imagery (see below). However, dense foliage obscures the ravine. This site was likely chosen due to its inaccessibility and hidden landscape. Similar to other sites I have found, the nature of disposal is not conducive to the use of satellite imagery, even with an identifiable location.

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Cartel grave sites are also frequently made up of cremated remains or bodies hidden in bags. According to several groups that search for missing people, Cartels often incinerate their victims in order to leave no trace.[9] This was the case for a site found in March of this year. Bones and charred remains were found at a ranch in El Salto, Jalisco, Mexico.[10] The group, Guerreros Buscadores, published some photos of the site on their Facebook page here. We could not find the exact location in El Salto, however, due to the site largely being made up of a makeshift oven and some skeletal remains, this site would not be visible on satellite imagery.

Finally, even when a mass grave site in found in an open space, it is still difficult to identity as a grave site. For example, in 2017, the excavation of a pit outside of Veracruz revealed over 250 human skulls.[11] It was concluded that the site was a mass dumping ground for Cartels in the area. We have included images of the site both today after excavation (left) and in 2015 before excavation started (right). Despite the presence of hundreds of bodies, the grave site does not immediately appear to be a mass grave when viewed with satellite imagery. Following excavation, it is clear where the makeshift graves were, though it still does not resemble a grave at first glance. This is indicative of the ways in which the Cartels dispose of their victims. The approach is neither methodical nor predictable in appearance from above (though perhaps in other ways, as will be discussed later). There seems to be less concern for digging actual graves than there is for dumping bodies in areas they are unlikely to be found in.

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It is typical for both collectives and law enforcement to search for bodies by walking sections of the desert or landscape, and many graves are discovered by accident.[12] Though drones are used, they are not common tools for these groups, suggesting that the easiest (though still difficult) way to find graves is to search on foot. One mother states that she stabs the ground with a stick as she walks, smelling the end for traces of decaying remains.[13] Drones providing an above-ground view are often not sufficient, as one group, Jalisco’s Search Commission, has equipped their drones with thermo-sensitive cameras to detect differing levels of nitrogen and humidity levels in the soil, which could potentially lead to the discovery of graves.[14] With all of this in mind, moving forward with a project that relies on satellite imagery may prove difficult, as Cartels dispose of bodies in ways that are difficult to find. That being said, some groups are finding new methods to aid in the discovery of graves that rely on satellites and maps, which could aid this project if it continues forward.

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From Above:

 

A project undertaken by Mondragón, Diaz, Reyes, and Cárdenas at CentroGeo has taken a different approach for identifying mass graves with satellite imagery and coordinates of sites that have already been found.[15] The group made a request to the Attorney General of the State of Baja California (FGEBC) for the coordinates of found sites and marked those on a map. Using this information, they aim to predict where new clandestine graves will be located in the same region (in this case Baja California). This approach relies on three factors: “Point pattern analysis, accessibility combined with visibility analysis, and hyperspectral analysis.”[16] Their hypothesis is that, based on these three factors, researchers and law enforcement agencies may be able to predict which regions Cartels will return to or use in the future, thereby shrinking the potential search area and making the process easier for those searching on the ground.

 

First, point pattern analysis refers to the idea that if several graves were found within close proximity to one another, then it can be assumed that their placement is not random. In this way, new graves in the same area could be found, or the search area at least narrowed down. The second factor relates to the tendency of Cartels to choose private sites, such as those obscured by the forest or rough terrain. That being said, accessibility for the quick disposal of remains is also a requirement. Therefore, sites that meet both needs may lead to the discovery of graves and should be prioritized during searches. An example of this is evident in the grave site mentioned above near Sendero de los Fresnos Street in Guadalajara. The site is accessible by the street, yet private enough to remain hidden, as the ravine is difficult both to see into and to access.

 

The final factor relates to detecting the presence of increased levels of nitrogen, which suggests decomposition. Through the use of Red-edge Chlorophyll Index (RECI), the decomposition of animals was detected through an increased production of chlorophyll in the plants in the surrounding area. RECI can be computed from the images produced by satellites Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B from the European Space Agency’s Copernicus program. CentroGeo created an index to “account for the increase of RECI from images acquired by the Sentinel-2A/B constellation from 2016-2020 in Baja California.”[17] Though other human activities can impact the levels of nitrogen, such as fertilized fields, it can be used to detect the presence of large graves, as demonstrated in their article with a grave found in Tijuana.

Conclusion

The work of CentroGeo could potentially offer a way forward for this project with Khthon if requesting data on the specific locations and coordinates of found grave sites is possible. Khthon could pursue similar tactics of examining the proximity of sites to one another, particularly in high conflict states like Colima, as well as examining the terrain where they were found. Our ability to obtain RECI satellite images may not yet be feasible, but perhaps progress could be made elsewhere. Based on the information presented in this brief report, as well as the conclusion drawn by CentroGeo that their research is necessary because of the invisibility of many clandestine graves, this project’s current approach that relies on viewing graves with satellite imagery is not sufficient.[18] If this alternative path is possible for Khthon, it could prove beneficial to this project and to understanding Cartel violence.

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References:

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[1] https://fiscalia.jalisco.gob.mx/comunicacion-social/boletin-de-prensa/boletin-1308-20230531; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/45-bags-human-remains-mexico-guadalajara/.

[2] https://gb.readly.com/magazines/new-scientist/2024-08-15/66bc9cb85221b82a11c01998.

[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-mothers-missing-turn-drones-look-unmarked-graves-2024-01-26/.

[4] https://www.msn.com/es-mx/noticias/mexico/crimen-organizado-cuelga-a-un-hombre-en-la-capital-del-estado-de-zacatecas/ar-BB1nNkOj

[5] https://icmp.int/what-we-do/geographic-programs/mexico/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20National%20Registry,as%20a%20result%20of%20crime.

[6] https://mexicodailypost.news/2024/06/06/29-clandestine-graves-with-30-human-remains-found-in-the-community-of-tecuanillo/; https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/localizan-29-fosas-30-segmentos-170743313.html; http://www.fgecolima.mx/fge_boletines_ver.php?boletin=4046.

[7] https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100083081241796; https://x.com/madresbuscan?lang=en.

[8] https://fiscalia.jalisco.gob.mx/comunicacion-social/boletin-de-prensa/boletin-1308-20230531; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/45-bags-human-remains-mexico-guadalajara/.

[9] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/human-remains-smoking-pit-oven-jalisco-mexico-relatives-missing-say/.

[10] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/human-remains-smoking-pit-oven-jalisco-mexico-relatives-missing-say/.

[11] https://www.npr.org/2017/03/17/520498625/more-than-250-bodies-found-in-mass-grave-in-mexico.

[12] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunting-for-hidden-graves-in-mexico/; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/45-bags-human-remains-mexico-guadalajara/.

[13] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunting-for-hidden-graves-in-mexico/.

[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-mothers-missing-turn-drones-look-unmarked-graves-2024-01-26/.

[15] https://citizenevidence.org/2022/06/30/finding-clandestine-graves-using-geospatial-analysis-to-search-for-missing-persons-in-baja-california-mexico/; https://gb.readly.com/magazines/new-scientist/2024-08-15/66bc9cb85221b82a11c01998.

[16] https://citizenevidence.org/2022/06/30/finding-clandestine-graves-using-geospatial-analysis-to-search-for-missing-persons-in-baja-california-mexico/.

[17] https://citizenevidence.org/2022/06/30/finding-clandestine-graves-using-geospatial-analysis-to-search-for-missing-persons-in-baja-california-mexico/.

[18] https://gb.readly.com/magazines/new-scientist/2024-08-15/66bc9cb85221b82a11c01998.

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