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Sambisa

Case Number

20240701WO

Case Date of Filing

01/07/2024

Suspected/Known Time of Incident

Local Time and Date:N/a On going
GMT/Zulu Time and Date: N/a

Case Researcher(s)

Project Managers Bertram Woolley & Harvey Stevens

Summary

Project Khthon is focusing on identifying the locations of Boko Haram (BH) terrorists, that are hiding within the Sambisa Forest. By utilizing advanced Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Satellite Intelligence (SATINT), Project Khthon aims to to create a list of potential locations where BH militants might be hiding. This includes monitoring movements, identifying patterns, and analysing satellite images to detect camps and hideouts within the dense forest. This targeted approach will enable the Nigerian military to conduct more effective operations, potentially rescuing hostages and dismantling terrorist infrastructure.
 
Through these efforts, Project Khthon is committed to aiding in the elimination of Boko Haram and restoring peace and security in the region. The strategic use of advanced intelligence techniques aims to provide crucial support to the Nigerian government's mission against terrorism.
 
References:
"After 10 Years, Army Rescues Over 300 Civilians From Boko-Haram Captivity In Sambisa Forest" - Naija News (Naija News)
"Army Rescues 387 Boko Haram Family Members From Sambisa Forest" - Channels Television (Channels Television)
"Nigerian Troops Rescue Another Chibok Girl In Sambisa Forest" - Ripples Nigeria (MilVet Benefits)
"Hundreds of hostages rescued from Boko Haram in Nigeria" - Christian Post (Christian Post)

Case Location

The Sambisa Forest, located in northeastern Nigeria, is a dense region. The forest has become infamous as a stronghold for Boko Haram, a jihadist terrorist group that has been using the forest as a base for its operations since 2013. This group has caused significant loss of life, biodiversity loss, as well as severe socio-economic disruption in the region.
 
Boko Haram has carried out numerous atrocities not only in the Sambisa Forest but also across northeastern Nigeria and neighbouring countries. Their brutal activities include mass kidnappings, such as the abduction of 276 schoolgirls from Chibok in 2014, bombings, and village massacres. Regions like Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states have been particularly affected, with countless villages attacked and thousands of civilians killed or displaced. The group has also extended its terror into the Lake Chad Basin and parts of Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. It is to note that, the Sambisa forest does not contain all of BH and for example one of the 2014 Chibok school girls was found 150km away from the incident, this shows the extent to which BH operate in the Sahel and therefore it must not be assumed that all the answers lie in the Forest.
 
Latitude/Longitude (WGS84):
11°22'43.19"N 13°27'24.58"E
Town/Region/Country:
Pulka-Konduga/Borno/Nigeria

Individual Incident Locations

Potential location 1
11°27'57.33"N 13°27'46.03"E

image_2024_10_04T06_38_50_591Z_edited.jp

A small site, with access to a river. 25km away from Bama where 3 separate incidents occurred in 05/2024. Including on 29/05/2024 the surrender of 3 BH militants including their families. Suggesting the location they had been living was nearby/ within 1/2 days march.

Potential location 2
11°25'9.89"N 13°28'44.12"E

image_2024_10_04T06_39_06_037Z.png

A collection of what appear to be huts from aerial view. The location is 20km north of the recent skirmish BH had on 13/05/2024, Nigerian troops clashed with BH during a raid at Sambisa Forest Reserve (Gwoza, Borno). The militant enclaves raided included those at Shababul Umma, Garin Panel Beater and Lagara Anguwan Gwaigwai.

Potential location 3
11°24'45.64"N 13°28'36.02"E

image_2024_10_04T06_39_14_271Z.png

This location is made up of roughly 4 huts and one larger building, it has good access to both water and paths/transports heading North/South. It is 25km South West of Bama. 20km North of 13/05/2024 skirmish and 50km west of the ‘Extreme North’ of Cameroon where several attacks have occurred by BH in late 02/2024 (Kolofata) to early 04/2024 (Pulka).

Potential location 4
11°18'28.52"N 13°31'26.72"E

image_2024_10_04T06_39_27_190Z.png

Situated in a dense forest, located 3km away from ‘Zuwa’ (11°17'20.01"N 13°32'31.08"E) which has paths/roads connecting to larger settlements. There is also local access to water from the river nearby and the size of the settlement could accommodate a large group. The size of the buildings, proximity to other settlements and sighting of farmland does not align with guerilla warfare tactics used by BH or ISWAP

Potential location 5
11°18'59.66"N 13°27'22.94"E

image_2024_10_04T06_39_35_194Z.png
image_2024_10_04T06_39_52_672Z.png

This location is only 9km North East of the 13/05/24 skirmish, it has river access 0.5km to the East and also has a man-made water store/paddy/field to the north of the collection of huts, which are dispersed and number 30+, none however are larger than 5 metres nor are made of corrugated metal etc, suggesting no desire to become a larger target. Looking back through historic SATINT though, the settlement has been there since 2012 which does not align with BH or ISWAP pattern of moving locations regularly.

Suspected or Known Aggressors:

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Group/Tribe/Militia/Organisation: Boko Haram

Suspected/Known Quantity of Participants: Estimated that Boko Haram has between 1,500 to 5,000 active fighters in total. Only <30 have been seen at one time in this area during an attack in the area of Tourou on the 25th February 2024.


Aggressor Evidence Below:

image_2024_10_04T06_58_23_012Z.png

Further Comments

Project Khthon must exercise caution while attempting to locate Boko Haram groups or settlements in the Sambisa Forest and surrounding areas due to several critical factors.
 
One significant concern is the presence of other militant groups, such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). ISWAP, an offshoot of Boko Haram, operates in similar regions and engages in violent conflicts with both Boko Haram and Nigerian military forces. This rivalry adds complexity to identifying and targeting specific terrorist elements without inadvertently aiding one group over the other or escalating conflicts.
 
Moreover, Boko Haram and ISWAP utilise guerrilla warfare tactics, characterised by hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, and the use of rugged terrain for concealment. These tactics make it challenging to detect static settlements through SATINT because the militants frequently relocate to avoid detection and military strikes. The likelihood of identifying stationary camps is low, as these groups often dismantle and reassemble their camps quickly to remain elusive.
 
However, there are instances, such as the May 29, 2024, surrender of three Boko Haram militants in Bama, which suggest that some Boko Haram factions include families and hostages among their ranks. The presence of families and hostages necessitates a degree of stability, making it possible for these groups to maintain semi-permanent settlements. This aspect could provide an opportunity for SATINT to identify more static locations, albeit still challenging due to the adaptive nature of guerrilla warfare (NivoNews).
 
Therefore, Project Khthon must balance the use of advanced intelligence techniques with an understanding of the fluid and complex dynamics in these conflict zones. Careful analysis and collaboration with local intelligence are essential to avoid misidentification and to enhance the effectiveness of operations against Boko Haram and other militant groups. Collaborating with the Nigerian military and police, who possess in-country knowledge and up-to-date intelligence, would significantly improve Project Khthon's chances of success in locating and dismantling these terrorist networks.

References:
"After 10 Years, Army Rescues Over 300 Civilians From Boko-Haram Captivity In Sambisa Forest" - Naija News (NivoNews)
"Army Rescues 387 Boko Haram Family Members From Sambisa Forest" - Channels Television (Truth Nigeria)
"Nigerian Troops Rescue Another Chibok Girl In Sambisa Forest" - Ripples Nigeria
"Hundreds of hostages rescued from Boko Haram in Nigeria" - Christian Post

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